food for thought -UK living

 UK LIVING. Searching for greener pastures has always been synonymous with Nigerians. I remember the famous NTA advert of Andy 'checking out'. Nigerians have always dreamt of faraway lands. The cause of recent migration ( within the last 30yrs) can be mainly attributed to economic factor, every other excuse or reason is second to this; but the possibility of a shock awaits a good proportion of people who make this great journey. All might not be what it seems when one arrives. After arrival, the main priority for them is to find a job. So they expect to work, work, and work… and then work some more all in the name of making serious money to possibly send back home.

I will like to break down the categories of people involved in this exodus. In my humble opinion, I feel there are 2 categories of people who make this great journey. The first are those 'Without paper' and secondly, those 'With paper' (either by birth, or via highly skilled programmes). 'Paper' here means –the ability to work. There's a group of people who would fit in either category and they are called STUDENTS. Students are allowed to work for the duration of their study so they can be tagged 'With paper' but come end of the course, they are expected to leave the country. So when and if they overstay they are then 'Without paper'. In the past (less likely now) those 'without paper' or illegal immigrants, found it easier to find jobs (there are JOBS and there are JOBS) because there were some unscrupulous people/companies that would employ and pay you 'under the table' (without you presenting the proper documentation) because they could exploit you. This is the way it works - he employs and pays you less than what the market is offering because he knows you won't complain due to your illegal status. Let's say the market rate was going for £6/hr, he would pay half of that or even worse. It works for you because you are getting paid at least. Obviously you won't go reporting to the authorities because you will be arrested, detained and shipped back to MOTHERLAND for being illegal in the first place. But now that loophole has been closed by EU immigrants who have the 'paper' and also offer cheap labour like you. So it makes sense for an employer to take in EU immigrants rather than you

What makes you illegal? The visa you got from Lagos/Abuja explicitly states that you are strictly here on visiting purposes or for school and after a certain date you are expected to leave the country, but NO you haven't left, hence you have become an illegal, Simple. Now this is where the make or break HUSTLE begins for you. You start thinking of getting married to a British/EU citizen as this is the only way to legalize yourself (mainly the only way). At this stage in your sojourn, you may or may not have a job, even if you have a job, it is HIGHLY likely its nothing to write home about and the future looks bleak. To go back to Nigeria isn't an option because you told everyone you were leaving for good. At this time it is very likely that you are using a fake passport with a fake name to seek for job opportunities because your real passport will show your EXPIRED status. Using a fake name can be harmful in some ways because any previous qualifications or career that you previously had can't be referenced in any job you are going for. For those on Face book, they would have their pictures put up showing them enjoying the 'good life', meanwhile this may not be the case. Being illegal has caused some people to miss their father's burial because if you go back you can't come in. Some have been here for donkey years and might never go back. Legalising yourself may take a good part of 10-15yrs. Some more and some very few

2ND PHASE - YOU ARE NOW LEGAL/ YOU HAVE PAPERS

BUT some people are lucky and things work out for them, they get married or get legal some other way. Then the HUSTLE starts. After paying your DUES (menial jobs or the like) you will most likely arrive at this stage where your first decent job awaits you. Now you are on par with fellow documented Nigerians  'With paper' and you think it's all good because all the while you have been saying to yourself 'if I only I was legal, I will make so much money'. Here's the shock, there's a high possibility that you will end up being an average UK salary earner of £23, 244/per annum according to 'The telegraph'. This is 75% of UK citizens. This equates to around £1,497/month after tax; this is likely to be less after your work pension and union money has been deducted. Do people earn more? 'Yes' and can people earn less? - 'VERY BIG YES'. Now the aforementioned salary isn't bad in itself if you respect yourself and live within your means. On this salary you will live by but don't expect to build a house or REPRESENT in Nigeria with it. You will be lucky to save £100/month; ok let's work with £200. If you save £200/month for 5yrs this will equate to £12,000; the equivalent of three (3) million Naira. Saving £200/month means, you don't send money to your mother, father, siblings in Nigeria or you don't have kids, not married, not renting a flat/house/Mortgage/no car. Basically you will have to be stingy and be living in shared accommodation to make these savings. To get a mortgage on this level will be difficult. On this level, you can travel to Nigeria after careful planning; you can have a comfortable/content lifestyle and afford the good things of life (which is standard and basic). Your money can only sustain you here. Forget trying to invest in Nigeria or doing any capital intensive project because you can't.  Your chances increase slightly/marginally when you get married. Your wife may be among the 75% of UK average earners or bottom 25% that earn less than you. With combined incomes and a good wife or if you are good towards your wife you can possibly do more. Get a qualification if you haven't got one or rack on experience. In this phase you will have kids and become entrenched in the society and disposable income becomes non-existent. Husband and wife needs to encourage themselves. Run away from debts. Say no to credit cards if you don't know how to spend wisely. It's very difficult to leave this phase. The idea is to move out from this class as soon as possible. It's sad to say that most people will live and die in this class/phase – nothing wrong with it though (depending on your life goals).

3^rd PHASE: Hustling but making progress.

£31,759 is the magic number. That's what you earn per annum. You are now among the top 25% of UK earners. You bring back home £1,986 net; again this is likely be less after your work pension and union money has been deducted. You begin to get involved in the society. You are middle class proper. You will want a mortgage. Your bills weigh you down. You are lucky if you don't have credit card bills and loans – VERY UNLIKELY, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. You have kids, car/cars etc. With a good wife and good planning you will dare to believe. Your combined incomes make you a 'mini-force'. You are in mid-level management position or along those lines. The future is bright only if you believe; but you are not out the woods yet, just in case you start thinking you can buy that house/land in Nigeria. On this level you can go to the bank and borrow a substantial amount of money to buy that Nigerian property/land that has been your dream, but your loan repayments and other financial commitments will perpetually render you broke at the end of every month. On the other hand, if you have wrecked your CREDIT WORTHINESS in the 2^nd phase, to get a loan from a bank is impossible. In this phase, your disposable income is strained because by now you have so much coming out from your account that taking on any Nigerian project may very well be unwise. Agreements between husband and wife is paramount here, please be at PEACE. You still may not be able to take on Nigeria. You may start thinking of relocating to Nigeria; this is easier said than done. If you are here it is very possible to get to the next phase, don't slow down. Wives should encourage their men and husbands likewise.    

4th AND FINAL PHASE..AND OTHER PHASES

You think you have arrived or have finally achieved your goals by landing that dream job. Welcome to the top 10% of UK earners, £39000 - £44000/per annum. After tax, your take home will be between £2,400-£2,600/monthly. Ha ha, I see you smiling now, yeah am smiling too. As usual this is likely to be less after your work pension and union money has been deducted. If you are married to a good wife (or if you are good towards your wife) and you plan well the sky is your limit. But getting here can be very tricky and difficult. Not everyone achieves this status, you may never get here. At this level, you should have acquired enough working experience and your CV will have to look strong. This is likely to be a proper management position, highly skilled position or along those lines. You would have paid enough DUES to get here. The truth is you still might not be able to buy that small house you want in Abuja or Lagos that is going for 7 million naira (around these figures). At this time you have a mortgage, a nice car and kids. Yes, after careful planning too you can afford a plane ticket to Nigeria for visits and this might be all that you can do in regards with investing in Nigeria, YOU STILL DO NOT HAVE MONEY TO COMPETE WITH YOUR MATES BACK HOME. The idea is not to compete but do what you NEED to do back home. At this time in your life, it is possible that you may be considering going back to Nigeria for good because you have the good experience but… it is easier said than done. You will really have to get a good job in Nigeria that can pay for the same quality of life you and your family enjoy in the UK. Only perseverance of that which you really want will propel you to a higher dream.

There is a top 5% that earn £52,000 - £6100/per annum and a top 1% of £117,000-150,000/per annum. If you find yourself in the top 1%, you should be giving back to Nigeria and you better start making yourself very relevant in Nigeria political and socioeconomic processes. If in the top 1%, I respect you because you are and should be an authority in your field. It is very easy for you to find a good quality job in Nigeria if you really want to relocate. It will be a very big shame on you if you are bugged down with too much debt/credit agreement that has now brought you down to the phase 2/3 level. It's not what you earn that matters, it's what you have left after your monthly financial commitments. Being in debt can kill you in this country. You MUST be a role model for your people because you are a testimony. Your stories/travails should be a source of encouragement to others.

Lastly, it is not impossible to achieve and realise ones goals in the UK, it’s a matter of perseverance and faith. I know that a vast majority of Nigerians can’t afford a land/property in Abuja or Lagos, but for the Nigerians who live in the UK there are too many success stories coming out from Nigeria (whether this is true or not we don't know); hence the unending longings to relocate back home. There is that feeling among Nigerians in diaspora/UK that Nigeria could offer them more.

N.B. These are my personal opinions. Figures used are mainly for people employed in the public sector/civil servants. This theory can be applied to the private sector employees too. Business owners are not accounted for. 2008 references sourced. With inflation and recession in world economies now, these figures should be very relevant in 2011.

Do you tweet? Follow me on twitter @mexy7777

References

http://en.wikipehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/7903432/Average-household-bill-higher-than-average-salary.htmldia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8151355.stm

Food for thought part 2

 

  

Food for thought Part 2 - Oil.

 

I write as a lay man….

 

What if there is a decline in the demand for oil in the very near future? What if there was a massive shift towards other cheaper and efficient sources of energy today?  If major consumers of oil like USA, EU and China etc find cheaper and alternative sources, where does that leave us? According to the IMF, Oil/Petroleum contributes about 95% of foreign exchange earnings to our GDP and 80% of the Federal Government of Nigeria's (FGN) revenue which only benefits 1% percent of the population in Nigeria. Did I hear you say 1%? Yeah you heard right . Agriculture also accounts for 25% of GDP which is a major source of income for two-third (2/3) of the population (didn't know that). There are still other non oil sectors like telecommunication, services, retail etc that are making a substantial contribution. But the worrying aspect for me is that 80% of our revenue comes from the oil sector. Can you imagine this being wiped out or to suffer a substantial hit/dent? I shudder.

With western economies experiencing financial difficulties, upward trend  of unemployment levels, rising cost of energy - like the UK where the cost of gas and electric have been on the rise, people are having to make tough decisions between their needs versus wants.  According to the telegraph, 1.3 million people have been driven off  UK's roads this year as a result of rising costs of petrol. Fuel efficient vehicles and electric cars are very much the desired vehicles to have. The United Sates is no different as a report in 2010 stated that that US was spending approximately a $1billion a day overseas on oil. I would like to think that this wouldn't go in indefinitely. In the US, Vehicle manufacturers are now being mandated to make fuel efficient cars. There is a proposal by the white house to the motor industry to achieve a 56.2mpg from its current level of 27.3mpg by 2025 for today's average cars and trucks and not meeting this requirement will result in a pay/fine for every car that fails to achieve this standard. The US motor industry is already struggling to meet a 2016 deadline of 35.5mpg and from 2017 carmakers will be required to achieve a 5% improvement in fuel efficiency. Now whether these will be achieved is a matter for debate but we can all agree that the US (and other various governments) government is taking necessary steps to reduce their dependence on petrol/oil. Also going on in the West is the 'GREEN' revolution. It is now fashionable to be 'green' and the otherwise is socially frowned upon.

 

Now what's our (Naija) strategic plan for all these? Are we diversifying quickly enough? Are we re-investing the revenues from the oil sector towards the other non-oil sectors? Check this out, the projected budget sale price of oil for 2011 is $65 per barrel at an estimated export rate of 1.9 million barrels per day and expected revenue is £52.2 billion. As at 31st July 2011 Brent crude was £117 and as at the time of this write-up its $109.37. When you do the sums, we should have a huge surplus of more than $40 billion. So, if we believe what the World Bank is saying, this money would have been shared or is being shared by a certain 1% of the population (OMG, Na so!)

The idea would have been that due to the astronomical cost in crude especially in the last few years, this would have presented a great opportunity to invest in a different sector like agriculture which is currently a major source of income for two- third of the population. Our biggest trading partners are really re-thinking their attitude towards oil/petrol consumption but I am not sure if they can really wean themselves of crude as quickly as they'll love to but I bet that they can reduce their consumptions. The mere fact that they're thinking about it should be a wake-up call for Naija. The United States account for 40% of our oil exports (our largest trading partner) and as stated previously here, they're making considerable efforts to reduce dependency on oil. The United Kingdom and EU account for 24%. The EU is even more stringent than the US in the area of Co2 emission for cars and machineries and this is the reason for the growth of fuel efficient cars on EU roads.  In the UK, the cost road tax (having your vehicle on the road) is dependent on Co2 emission of the said vehicle. For example, a 2005 Mercedes M- class (ML320 CDI SE 5D Tip Auto) will cost about £460 per annum to keep on the road, while the 2006-2008 model will cost £260. The UK practices a band system where all vehicles fall into categories A to M.  With 'A' paying nothing at all, 'B' - £20 per annum and at the end of the spectrum – 'M' costing $460 p/a. In the EU, a huge number of the new cars manufactured are more fuel efficient compared to their previous models, although expensive to the average person for now, the strategic idea is that in 10yrs time these new cars will become second hand vehicles, very affordable to the average people and we'll have more on the road. As the trend continues, a time will come where only fuel efficient vehicles will be on the road. Future cars will be better at fuel consumption when compared to their 2010/2011 counterparts and this will in turn reduce fuel consumption by EU on a considerable proportion.

Asia, Brazil and South Africa who account for 20%, 10% and 4% of our oil exports respectively are also seeking to make changes as there is a huge outcry from international bodies for all and especially Asia to reduce its carbon emission/Co2 and the likes. The outcry to reduce CO2/carbon emission is now global, whether this will happen or not, we'll wait and see.

 

Summarily , the world is making strategic plans to go green, be fuel efficient, reduce CO2/carbon print, seeking alternative  source of energy; are we as a country supposed to sit idly-by and watch whilst this happens? With our windfalls in oil revenue, isn't it sensible we try investing in multiple sources of income for the country? Even if the world continues in their oil consumption, shouldn't we still invest in other places? It can be argued that oil consumption is here to stay for the foreseeable future but it can't be overlooked that steps are being taken in the West to reduce consumption.  It is very possible that we might get to a time when these Western countries who make up for more than 60% of our oil exports begin to import less due to better efficiencies re their machineries and it's also very possible that when this happens the huge demand for oil may not be there anymore causing the price in oil to drop considerably. I know that this write-up has focused mainly on vehicles but as at 2009, that's about 900 million vehicles (cars and light trucks) worldwide we're talking about – roughly one car per eleven people. That's a lot of petrol/diesel cars that will be forced to improve their fuel efficiency. I also know that factories apply oil in their processes and also crude derivatives are used in plastics and other various products; but there is a general/worldwide trend towards reduction in Co2 emission from cars, factories and machineries. The big question is do we do nothing and hope that oil will always be in demand a thousand years from now or do something like investing in other sectors, seek major multiple streams of income  and diversify? Irrespective of global trends towards oil, let's hope the latter. Lastly, I stand corrected on anything in my submission above.

Food for thought?

I was just thinking of the potential we have as a people and as a country. kai, our GDP has been between  6 to more than 8% in the last 2years , mostly dependant on oil( Google it). Western European countries and the US will give an arm and a leg to have this sort of GDP. China's GDP has been growing at the average of 10% yearly in the last 30years (Wikipedia). UK grew 0.5 in the 1st quarter of 2011 and the US grew less than 2% in the 1st quarter of 2011 as well.  Many more developed countries are struggling. These countries engage in the full productivity of its people. i.e. everyone works and accounts for their time at work.  Every 8/10/12hrs shift is fully accounted for. When you go to work, it is expected that you mostly remain busy until break time and then after break you go for the last lap. These people work hard to earn their wages. 

Now compare 9ja, where my people who are civil servants (state and federal) lie idle at work. For those of them who happen to be in offices that have internet hooked up PC's, they browse, they chat and while away time (most of them). Come end of the month you get paid.  Don't get me wrong, most of these guys want to work (or maybe some?) but there simply isn't any work for them to do. As a very good friend told me over the phone "Jigga, we wan work but work no dey for us to do" sitting in his office browsing.  

Check this out - one achieves his first degree in a Nigerian university and then goes abroad to get a Masters degree. He then comes back home and is made to waste away in an office doing nothing.  This is mind bugling... all that education and its being wasted like that?

In my opinion we run the biggest welfare/benefit system in the world (the west can’t touch us) where you employ people and pay them for doing nothing. And guess what? GDP is great!  Now imagine if my people were being productive at work and how this would reflect nationally..olboy e , we go de laff go bank nationally and that might be another stream of income for the us. We'll probably be ahead of the Chinese. So in a nutshell, 9ja’s GDP is great even after all these. So make we make people work nah?

What china is doing now is not new. These guys are making products en mass; whatever you want, China will produce (and they make it cheap). Way back when, my people made clothes and other items but we called it "ABA MADE" and my people knock am. My people made sure you are a laughing stock when you were caught in the possession of these so called "ABA MADE" products. Now the Chinese are doing the same thing that the ABA people were doing; the so called fake and low quality products, but guess what - the world is flocking to China for these products. If 'ABA MADE' was allowed to grow in 9ja, the country would have been a financial hub for the whole world just like China is now. Kai, imagine looking at the back of your TV, Radio, laptop etc and seeing that print “Made in 9ja"...OMG that'll be a great feeling for Naij People and we will make it cheaper than China or anyone else, trust us nah. 

Summarily, my points are as follows. 1. Can we try and make those employed in the public sector, i.e. civil service more productive? Abeg make we try small.

2. Let’s try to patronise ‘our own’. Can we as a government/people encourage manufacturers? Let’s go back to the drawing board. Most times these manufacturers just need little capital to add a bit of quality to an already working product.